What do we have at the end of 2025?

Mass layoffs, tightening of the screws by the state and marketplaces. An increase in VAT, which means a rise in store prices. The SMO continues, leading to high government spending, a high central bank rate, and consequently, a business freeze.

I spoke with the owners of manufacturing companies, an IT company, and an analytical agency who have already been through crises, and I asked:

What are you going to do in 2026 to survive?

В 2026 бизнес ждет экономический кризис. И это не традиционное нытье перед Новым годом

In short: in the year of the horse, you'll have to work like a horse.

What needs to be considered in 2026?

First, it's worth admitting that the crisis has happened.

Based on the results of 2025, we can say: we have entered a crisis phase. Over the past year, 26% fewer LLCs were opened than in 2024.
There's a feeling that 2026 will be worse. Taxes are rising, and it's much harder for sellers to make money. Those who wanted to relaunch or start their first business are now lying low.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

A lot of interesting things happened in 2025, and all of it will have to be taken into account in 2026.

1. High key rate

This figure determines how much money will cost for banks. Then, a hypothetical Sberbank adds its profit margin and issues loans to everyone else.

The rate determines the interest at which you'll get a mortgage. Or the interest at which a bank will give a loan to your business.

At the end of 2025, the central bank's rate is still high (16%), and its future is the main mystery of 2026.

Для сравнения в 2021 ставка ЦБ была 8,5% — For comparison, in 2021 the Central Bank rate was 8.5%

Overall, there's a feeling that 2026 will be tougher than 2025.
When the central bank rate is low, it's profitable to invest in business. But with a high rate, it's profitable to keep money in a deposit account.
Businesses, on average, are not high-margin. People dream of x2, x3 returns, but usually, a business brings in 20%, 30% annually, and that's if you're lucky. We all understand how many bankruptcies there are.
When a deposit brings in 17% annually, you don't really want to lend money to a businessman you know at 20% annually; it's easier to take that money to the bank.
But when a bank deposit brings in 10% annually, lending to your acquaintance Vasya at 20% sounds like a plan. Vasya will buy a small machine and can produce something.
The refinancing rate will fall when there is peace. But even when it's all over, government spending won't stop abruptly. It will be necessary to invest in the development of territories, etc.
G. Torshin, owner of a metal structures manufacturing company, a leasing company, and pawnshops

В 2026 бизнес ждет экономический кризис. И это не традиционное нытье перед Новым годом

Due to the high refinancing rate, demand is falling. Even in the dairy industry, which my production depends on. People are starting to save money even on food.
Because of the high Central Bank rate, projects are being frozen, including ours. We don't want to invest borrowed money at a 16% rate. Few have a profit margin that can cover such interest.
We have suspended the construction of our third production site. But we are still directing part of our profits to investments so that we are ready when demand recovers.
Nevertheless, I don't consider this situation critical. Subsidized loans for businesses are still being provided, and they are not tied to the Central Bank rate. Sensible manufacturers understand that demand will recover. If not in 2026, then in 2027.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

2. VAT has increased

The Value Added Tax (VAT) increased from 20% to 22% in 2025.

Главное голосование 2025 — The main vote of 2025

But the most painful thing for small businesses is that the revenue threshold for paying VAT has been lowered.

Previously, VAT was a tax on 'rich' companies; now even a small shop in the provinces is subject to this tax.

Телеграм канал про бизнес <a href="https://api.vc.ru/v2.8/redirect?to=https%3A%2F%2Ft.me%2F%2BQO3ROxZbS8hlZWNi&postId=2672368" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Упал, поднялся</a>. — Telegram channel about business Fell, got up

For you and me, the VAT increase means a price increase.

With the change in VAT, everything will become more expensive, but purchasing power is not growing.
For example, metal suppliers are already saying that the price will rise by 5%. Yes, their VAT will increase by only 2%, but between the metal producer and the final buyer, there is a chain of resellers and logistics providers whose costs are also rising. As a result, the overall price of raw materials is increasing. And we will also be forced to raise our prices.
But VAT won't affect us critically. I mostly deal with non-cash transactions with VAT. And my task is to buy everything possible with VAT to ultimately reduce the tax. I pay for gasoline with fuel cards, and I pay the car service with VAT.
G. Torshin, owner of a metal structures manufacturing company, a leasing company, and pawnshops

We have always been on the general taxation system, so the tax increase from 20% to 22% is insignificant for us. We will simply pass it on in the price.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

VAT doesn't affect us much; we've outgrown the threshold where you have to pay it, but we haven't reached the general taxation system yet. But, of course, everything will become more expensive, and we will also be forced to pass the costs on to our clients.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

3. The state is tightening the screws

I see that the state is tightening the screws: VAT, taxes. And it's sad that it happened so abruptly.
The subsidies and grants we received have essentially already been paid back in taxes, and we will pay back more. It's as if the state-investor first helped you and now wants to take its money back.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

4. It has become harder for the poor to get rich

Not so long ago, you could really go into business to make money. But gradually, these windows of opportunity are closing.

– marketplaces have sharply raised commissions and are squeezing out small sellers

– Western companies have already been replaced by import substitution

– it's easier to put money in a deposit account than to invest in a business

Recently, everyone was rushing to marketplaces, working with parallel imports, replacing companies that had left. All that has ended, and in trade, there are no ideas left for where entrepreneurs can run to make money.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

5. Layoffs are happening

Production workers are not being laid off, but the management superstructure is under threat.

We are not laying people off; there is always a shortage of production workers, and we have many open positions. But layoffs of support staff and managers are possible.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

IT departments are being downsized for two reasons: on the one hand, companies are investing less in new areas for economic reasons; on the other hand, AI assistants help developers do more work.

Есть вакансии, где на одну айти вакансию 3000 откликов. — There are job openings where one IT position gets 3,000 applications.

We have no plans to lay people off, but we do have a plan not to hire new people if someone leaves.
Right now, the head of my mechanical preparation department has disappeared. We had been working well together for a long time. He went on sick leave, we called him after 3 days, and he's not answering, not answering anyone, but the messages are marked as read.
His sick leave ends in 2 weeks, the person doesn't show up, the guys told me he came by to pick something up. I don't know if he started drinking or what.
And it's clear that you can't count on the person anymore and need to find a replacement. But in the current conditions, we realized that we don't fit into the budget and it's better to distribute the duties of the person who left.
I'm checking the metric – revenue per employee. This metric was at its best for us in 2021. And in 2025, it became worse than in 2023.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

6. Things are getting worse for small businesses

The turnover of small businesses has grown less than the official inflation rate. This is not the first time we've seen this in the last 5 years.
In fact, business turnover has fallen. And this is a typical crisis. And it's not about the VAT increase. The tax has been raised since 2019. And nothing terrible happened then.
What hits small businesses is not the tax increase, but the lowering of the VAT threshold. Those who don't meet the revenue threshold will have to hire an accountant and pay an additional 5%.
Only the food service industry has won here. For them, the VAT exemption thresholds were raised to 2 billion in turnover, while in trade, they were lowered to 20 million.
It turns out the food service industry is an important sector for the state.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

За меньшее количество ресурсов будут бороться больше людей — More people will fight for fewer resources

Small businesses are having a hard time. It's more convenient for marketplaces to work with systemic and large companies, not with small ones that are here today and gone tomorrow.
The costs of working with small and large companies are the same, but the scale of the profit is different.
It's also more profitable for the state to have larger businesses. Everyone needs to be controlled, and keeping an eye on the small fry is a pain: they have business splitting schemes, cash transactions.
I talk to people who do business in Europe, and things are much more complicated there than here. And we are obviously heading in that direction, which means conditions for small businesses will worsen.
Competition in trade has grown. Before, you could buy a container of goods in China, resell it, and make a 100% profit. Now it's harder to make money, and people have started investing in their own production to reduce costs.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

Так – всё реже (Источник: <a href="https://api.vc.ru/v2.8/redirect?to=https%3A%2F%2Ft.me%2F%2BQO3ROxZbS8hlZWNi&postId=2672368" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Упал, поднялся</a>) — Like this – less and less often Fell, got up

Так – всё чаще (Источник: <a href="https://api.vc.ru/v2.8/redirect?to=https%3A%2F%2Ft.me%2F%2BQO3ROxZbS8hlZWNi&postId=2672368" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Упал, поднялся</a>) — Like this – more and more often Fell, got up

The Chinese are advancing on marketplaces

Another problem on marketplaces is the Chinese. The Chinese have lower commissions. The marketplaces have stopped growing at the expense of Russian sellers and are now trying to grow at the expense of the Chinese.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

The state is cracking down on gray imports

To bring goods from abroad, you need to pay all taxes and duties. But businesses want to save money and try to find loopholes, for example, by importing goods for sale under the guise of goods for personal use.

Such tricks are called gray imports or cargo.

The crackdown on gray imports (cargo) is good for us. There will be fewer counterfeit competitors.
On marketplaces, you could see a budget microphone for 3,000 ₽, which is physically impossible to do 'by the book'. The premium segment will be less affected; microphones for 200-300k were not really imported through gray channels.
For me, as a consumer who is used to buying quickly on Ozon and WB, this formalization is inconvenient. There will be less variety. But from a business point of view, it's a plus.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

7. Strengthening of the ruble

To be honest, I wouldn't call what's happening at the end of 2025 a crisis. But the situation is certainly unpleasant. For us, for example, it's unpleasant that the ruble has strengthened.
We buy raw materials from abroad six months in advance. We bought raw materials at a rate of 100 ₽ per dollar, and now the rate is 80 ₽ per dollar. But the products are sold with a link to today's exchange rate.
But there are pluses too: we bought a production line at a rate of 80, and the rate will most likely only grow from here.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

В 2026 бизнес ждет экономический кризис. И это не традиционное нытье перед Новым годом

8. People have started buying less

In 2025, compared to 2024, we slumped a bit in Russia; in America, we closed as planned.
November was bad. The sales plan was 10 million ₽, but we sold for 6 million ₽. The plans weren't pulled out of thin air either, but were based on past statistics. A 10-15% drop is acceptable, but falling by almost half is very painful. And from what I hear from others, many entrepreneurs had this situation in November.
December is lifting our spirits. There was a bit of pent-up demand from November, and we've already sold a little more than the planned 12 million ₽.
And so this year we even had to cancel the off-site corporate party. We're just playing a quiz game in the office. There were a couple of moments when there wasn't enough money in the account to pay all the bills. I'm calm about it now, but it's unpleasant. I had to cancel my vacation, for example. I usually try to go to the seaside with my children every year, but this year we didn't go.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

But not everyone is doing poorly against this backdrop.

Our service's revenue, despite a problematic 2025, grew by 25%.
The number of new clients decreased by 10%, which is logical since fewer businesses are opening. However, the average check from current clients has grown. Central Asia is also giving us good growth.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

Is the crisis temporary?

Crises are often a temporary phenomenon. I had plans for a sad outcome during the pandemic, but small businesses not only didn't collapse, they actually grew.
Something similar happened in 2022. After a short downturn in 2022, small businesses flourished, and our service along with them.
We were watching the news back then, and they were saying:
'Business is doing great!'
Everyone around us didn't believe it:
'Yeah, right.'
But we really saw that everything was fine in the numbers.
Now the crisis is different, it's a creeping, dreary one. It's similar to 2015, when the ruble collapsed.
But it's not to say that everything is terrible.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

What to do in 2026?

I wouldn't want this article to be just the traditional pre-New Year whining, in the spirit of 'it was a tough year.' But, in my opinion, understanding what's happening is very useful for adjusting your plans. For example, business is actively reacting to what's going on.

What are we doing in the current situation?
– Investing in our own assets
I'm glad that we are working on our own territory and investing in our own production.
It's a typical story with production facilities: you're always improving the territory. Installing an outlet here, concreting there so a forklift can stack pallets. But when you're on rented territory, you're constantly investing in someone else's property. And then they kick you out.
– Looking for wholesale discounts
I'm trying harder to find raw materials and consumables in bulk at a discount. It's great if there's credit leverage, but you also need to look at the interest rate.
– Hiring subcontractors
We started outsourcing some of the work to subcontractors. Sometimes you calculate that you're paying them a considerable amount, and you get upset. But you have to force yourself to subcontract if it allows you to get the job done faster.
For example, we are making an order from I-beams. We have a subcontractor who can cut this I-beam, drill it at all angles, and sell it to us without scraps. If we do it ourselves, we'll save money, but we'll lose time, which in monetary terms can mean even greater losses.
– Upselling
We are always probing for where the margin is. We explore adjacent niches to add more load to our production and understand where else we can make money.
For example, we produce a hangar frame, and a client comes to us. But besides the frame, he needs sandwich panels, concrete, and builders. And we think: what else can we sell to a client who is already with us? Making sandwich panels is expensive, concrete and construction work are not great, because you get calls at night telling you a slab has cracked, and you don't enjoy that.
But, for example, there's this thing called flashings. These are iron elements on sandwich panels, and they cost a decent amount of money. We bought a small machine, set it up, and started making these flashings. And when a client came to us, we said:
'When you're cladding with sandwich panels, we'll make the flashings for you, and we'll sell them with VAT.'
But in the market, everyone makes flashings on the fly and for cash. And now, if people are sitting around with nothing to do, I say:
'Guys, bend some flashings.'
G. Torshin, owner of a metal structures manufacturing company, a leasing company, and pawnshops

В 2026 бизнес ждет экономический кризис. И это не традиционное нытье перед Новым годом

In the consumer goods market, it seems there's nothing to catch, China is too strong, but in the B2B manufacturing market, there are many niches.
In Tula, we have an entrepreneur who launched the production of geomembranes (used in construction).
You can look at exports. Exports account for 14% of our total production turnover. We ship to Africa, the Middle East, and the CIS.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

For 2026, we have high hopes for a new product. We produce condenser microphones, which are more suitable for recording studios or professional bloggers. And now we have released a dynamic microphone, which costs several times less than a condenser one and is suitable for unprepared rooms. You can just carry it in your bag. It's a big market.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

В 2026 бизнес ждет экономический кризис. И это не традиционное нытье перед Новым годом — In 2026, business awaits an economic crisis. And this isn't the traditional pre-New Year whining

To find new ideas in 2026, Fyodor Virin from an analytical agency advises looking at what is putting pressure on business right now.

What changes people's behavior today will determine your fate in two years. In different niches, this works differently.
Retail trade
Marketplaces have raised prices — the cost of goods on them has become higher than in regular stores. This pressure creates opportunities for offline retail. Consumers will start returning to regular stores because it's more profitable there.
At the same time, online food sales are putting pressure on retail. Fast 15-minute delivery has found its format and will grow. Currently, online food sales are 10 times smaller than they will be in a few years.
Food service
1. The food service industry is under pressure from ready-made meals in trays from grocery stores.
Millennials are used to this: they marry later, have children later, and don't need to cook at home. Just 6-7 years ago, 'ready-made food at Pyaterochka' sounded like a joke. Now it's a four-meter shelf in the center of the store.
Food in trays competes with going to cafes. The food service industry needs to come up with new formats to explain why people should come to them.
2. Saving time. A person leaves home, presses two buttons in an app — and in 4.5 minutes, their coffee is ready. They walk up to the coffee shop and pick up their order. This trend is already happening, but slowly.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing is under pressure from private labels of retail chains — they order at a low price and then sell it in their stores, pushing out manufacturers' brands.
The second pressure is the reduction in batch sizes. Books used to be printed in runs of hundreds of thousands. Now the average print run is a few thousand.
The same thing is happening throughout manufacturing. If yesterday they sewed 4,000 T-shirts, today they sew 100. Manufacturing needs to change technologies: implement automation, make processes more flexible so that working with small batches is profitable. The trend towards personalization will only grow.
IT development
IT is under pressure from AI assistants for programmers — they have sharply increased developer productivity. This has been superimposed on the Russian specifics: there is no money for new projects, and there are many underqualified developers on the market. In previous years, the demand was so strong that junior developers were hired for senior positions. And now a junior is sitting in a senior's place, and he is still a junior, but gets paid like a senior.
There is still demand for developers, but the requirements have increased. We need those who know how to work with AI assistants, that is, high-productivity developers.
Marketplaces
Sellers are under pressure from the formalization of business. VAT is being introduced, and monitoring is being strengthened.
But sellers who operate outside the law will not disappear quickly — they will start inventing more complex schemes.
Globally, some gray sellers will become legitimate, and some will become even more gray. That is, for those who work in the gray market, competition will decrease. And for legitimate sellers, competition will increase.
The formalization process will take time; a market worth several trillion rubles won't change overnight.
Services for business
The business analytics niche is under pressure from neural networks. What we do cannot yet be done with AI, but what smaller guys do, can. And since they are being pushed out of their market, they are putting pressure on ours. And, again, this is putting pressure on them now, and in a couple of years, it will be putting pressure on me.
Small business
There is a lot of self-employment here, and the state is not needed for small businesses to grow. But it is needed to ensure they don't die. So that those who have provided themselves with a salary and a job continue to be provided with a salary and a job, and pay taxes.
Taxes have been raised, but there are still many support programs. Therefore, for small businesses, a strategy of working with state support can be the basis for survival.
F. Virin, owner of an analytical agency.

What's the bottom line?

I look at 2026 with optimism. Yes, the ruble is strong, and the rate is high, but the rate is being lowered, and I think by the end of 2026 it will be lowered significantly. And the ruble will return to normal values.
In a crisis, those who are already on the edge close down, and maybe this is indeed a mechanism for clearing the market of weak and unprofitable enterprises. If a company survives a crisis, it becomes stronger. In general, I think that's how the world works: sometimes things are better, sometimes worse, I suggest taking a more philosophical approach to it.
V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt.

On the positive side, pent-up demand might kick in. If nothing terrible happens in 2026, then those who were saving money in 2025 might spend it in 2026. As it was in the 2014-2015 crisis and as it was at the end of 2022.
I think in 2026 we will see a market cleansing. Those who bought for 500 thousand rubles at Sadovod and sold on marketplaces will close down. The businesses, the entrepreneurship that has grown, are happy about this and are rubbing their hands. Because they have been on VAT for a long time.
But niche marketplaces are growing. Zolotoye Yabloko, VseInstrumenty, M.Video. They attract with low rates and allow you to withdraw money quickly.
I think some interesting direction will eventually emerge. At one time, vapes flourished on a massive scale, tens of thousands of shops opened. So there's no need to despair.
A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of a business service.

Globally, I think all gray schemes or those who depend on the imperfections of any systems will have a hard time in 2026. It will be necessary to provide real value. Just doing what you've always done will no longer be enough.
As they say, the tide will show who was swimming naked.
P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of a microphone manufacturing company.

Есть правда вопрос, а куда летит эта ракета? — There is a question, though, where is this rocket flying?

So, you get the picture. Those who have something can get by, trying to get more from current clients. Those who have nothing will continue to lose what little they have.

For whoever has, to him more shall be given, and he will have an abundance; but whoever does not have, even what he has shall be taken away from him.
Gospel of Matthew

Business is ceasing to be a social elevator, and it's not yet clear where those who would like to 'rise up' should go.

But, as the classic said: he who has brains and hands will never perish from hunger and boredom, so I wish you not to perish either.

And I'm off to find a Ded Moroz costume to congratulate my daughter.

It's probably not a bad thing if a child believes in a magical grandfather, since Ded Moroz, that rascal, just won't come to the adults.

The best New Year's greeting from you is a subscription to my blog 'Fell, Got Up'.

For 2 years now, once a week, I've been interviewing entrepreneurs about real business, not this 'successful success' of yours.

If you liked this story, you can also read other stories on the 'Fell, Got Up' channel.

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Subscribe to the channel, that way you will help continue this work, thank you.

There you will find:

An article about the production of 'SOYUZ' microphones.

An article about the production of packaging for dairy products here.

Articles with Grigory Torshin:

– About pawnshops

– About the production of metal structures

– About leasing

Disclaimer: for this article, I interviewed:

– G. Torshin, owner of a metal structures manufacturing company, the leasing company Power Finance, and pawnshops,

– V. Skuratovsky, owner of a company that produces aluminum lids for yogurt, ML group

– P. Bazdyrev, co-founder of the 'SOYUZ' microphone manufacturing company,

– A. Rakhimberdiev, founder of the business service MoySklad,

– F. Virin, owner of the analytical agency Data Insight.

An economic crisis awaits us in 2026. And this isn't the traditional pre-New Year whining