• Approach to calculating individual risk in COVID-19

      In February 2020, when the disease came to Europe, it became apparent to me that our timid hopes that the epidemics would subside and be finally buried in the China's soil were ruined. It was already evident from the Chinese statistics that the virus is lethal enough to scare and mild enough to pass unnoticed in many cases and, thus, to guarantee its effective dissemination. The question was when it reaches each next country.




      Another question was the individual risks, especially the risk of lethal outcome if one contracts the virus. The average figure of around 5% was circulated by late January and early February. It was known that males were more susceptible to fatal outcomes. By February, it was also evident that the virus doesn't lead to death only in the elderly — the middle age was significantly affected, as well.

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